Simultaneous compound disasters from COVID‐19 and catastrophic flooding – Wiley

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Jingchun Fan
School of Public Health, Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine, Gansu University of Chinese Medicine, Lanzhou, Gansu, China
Brett D. Hambly
School of Public Health, Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine, Gansu University of Chinese Medicine, Lanzhou, Gansu, China
Centre for Healthy Futures, Torrens University Australia, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
Corresponding Author
Yanqing Sun
Department of Haematology, Gansu Provincial Hospital, Lanzhou, Gansu, China
School of Clinical Medicine, Gansu University of Chinese Medicine, Lanzhou, Gansu, China
Correspondence
Yanqing Sun, Department of Haematology, Gansu Provincial Hospital, Lanzhou, Gansu, 730000, China.
Email: 491049515@qq.com
Dr Shisan Bao, School of Public Health, Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine, Gansu University of Chinese Medicine, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, China.
Email: profbao@hotmail.com
Corresponding Author
Shisan Bao
School of Public Health, Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine, Gansu University of Chinese Medicine, Lanzhou, Gansu, China
Correspondence
Yanqing Sun, Department of Haematology, Gansu Provincial Hospital, Lanzhou, Gansu, 730000, China.
Email: 491049515@qq.com
Dr Shisan Bao, School of Public Health, Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine, Gansu University of Chinese Medicine, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, China.
Email: profbao@hotmail.com
Jingchun Fan
School of Public Health, Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine, Gansu University of Chinese Medicine, Lanzhou, Gansu, China
Brett D. Hambly
School of Public Health, Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine, Gansu University of Chinese Medicine, Lanzhou, Gansu, China
Centre for Healthy Futures, Torrens University Australia, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
Corresponding Author
Yanqing Sun
Department of Haematology, Gansu Provincial Hospital, Lanzhou, Gansu, China
School of Clinical Medicine, Gansu University of Chinese Medicine, Lanzhou, Gansu, China
Correspondence
Yanqing Sun, Department of Haematology, Gansu Provincial Hospital, Lanzhou, Gansu, 730000, China.
Email: 491049515@qq.com
Dr Shisan Bao, School of Public Health, Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine, Gansu University of Chinese Medicine, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, China.
Email: profbao@hotmail.com
Corresponding Author
Shisan Bao
School of Public Health, Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine, Gansu University of Chinese Medicine, Lanzhou, Gansu, China
Correspondence
Yanqing Sun, Department of Haematology, Gansu Provincial Hospital, Lanzhou, Gansu, 730000, China.
Email: 491049515@qq.com
Dr Shisan Bao, School of Public Health, Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine, Gansu University of Chinese Medicine, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, China.
Email: profbao@hotmail.com
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The devastating COVID-19 pandemic is a major threat to human health, despite the implementation of extensive control measures, including a recent outbreak of the δ variant within China. Coincidently, a massive once-in-1000 year flood occurred in Henan Province, China, with tremendous loss of life and assets (China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, 2021). However, the subsequent disaster responses suggest that authorities were inadequately prepared for the compound effects of these disasters.
The COVID-19 pandemic that emerged from Wuhan has resulted in 241,411,380 confirmed cases and 4,912,112 deaths globally by 20 October 2021 (World Health Organization, 2021a). To date, several approaches have been utilised to control the outbreak and transmission of the SARS-CoV2 virus, including lockdown of communities, social distancing, mandatory wearing of face masks and bans on public gathering (Fan, Liu, Pan, et al., 2020), in addition to the implementation worldwide of the vaccination program. In the case of China, the situation has come reasonably under control with the implementation of these measures., that is, the lockdown in Wuhan was lifted on 8 April 2020, relaxation of numbers at social gatherings occurred in mid-April, and subsequently factories reopened in late-April (Fan, Hambly, & Bao, 2020). Consequently, activities were able to return to relative normality, for example, opening up for domestic tourism, and returning to a normal working and study environment (Fan, Liu, Shao, et al., 2020).
However, in July the normal Chinese lifestyle was dramatically upturned, following the importation of the δ strain of the SARS-Cov2 virus (Nanjing Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 2021) from overseas, necessitating authorities to implement rapid targeted responses to ameliorate the potential for surging infections (Jiangsu Provincial People’s Government, 2021). The rapidly mutating SARS-CoV-2 virus is testing the resilience of the world’s responses to it, with some strains for example, δ and Lambda evolving to become more infectious, consequently threatening a third wave of disease (Tada et al., 2021). Although vaccination against the original SARS-CoV-2 virus has been widely applied within the general population, emerging data suggest that host immunity is not sufficiently effective against the δ strain mutation, which is supported by evidence of increased mortality and morbidity in the population from this strain, even following vaccination (World Health Organization, 2021b). Workers within Nanjing International/National airport (which serves the capital of Jiangsu), were accidently infected with the δ strain on approximately 10 July 2021, with infections peaking on 10 August 2021, with a 7-day average of 48 cases/day (Jiangsu Commission of Health, 2021). The imported δ strain was transmitted rapidly to 15 provinces in China, probably via asymptomatic carrier(s) (www.thepaper.cn, 2021). Infection with the δ strain in the adjacent Henan Province (Figure 1) first occurred on 31 July 2021 and peaking on 12 August 2021 with a 7-day average of 21 cases/day, has continued until October 2021. Local authorities immediately implemented crisis responses, including shutdown of the airport, lockdown of Jiangsu, and mandatory checking/limiting people moving from Jiangsu to other places (Jiangsu Provincial People’s Government, 2021).
Independently, another major disaster, deadly flooding, occurred simultaneously in Henan Province, China on 17 July 2021, which has been assessed as being the biggest in known history (Zhengzhou Meteorological Bureau, 2021). Preparations for this major natural disaster were insufficient, due to a lack of prediction and understanding of the severity of this historically extreme event. The damage has yielded exceptionally high figures, including 352 lives lost and ¥133.7 billion (~US$20.9bn) lost in assets, with 14.8 million people being directly impacted from 150/158 counties/districts through the Henan Flooding (Henan Provincial People’s Government, 2021).
The response to such a severe natural disaster normally mandates that local authorities must provide some guidelines to handle such a situation, including rapid transportation of affected people to a safe place, and the provision of rescue teams to minimise possible outbreaks of flood-associated epidemic diseases (St Denis et al., 2020). However, the response to this natural disaster has been substantially complicated by the coincidental occurrence of two major crises, that is, the exacerbation of the COVID-19 pandemic, originating in the adjacent province of Jiangsu, and the deadly floods.
There is a simultaneous necessity to aggressively control the new wave of outbreak of δ strain of SARS-CoV2 virus, which requires a mandatory lockdown to control viral transmission. On the other hand, the absolute necessity to respond to the massive flooding requires the transportation of enormous numbers of affected people to safe places, and the control of flooding-associated epidemic diseases.
The temporal occurrence of these events has resulted in compound impacts from these two disasters. Although the delta outbreak was first recognised in Nanjing (capital of Jiangsu) on approximately 10 July 2021, transmission was not well controlled, resulting in extensive spread to many regions/Provinces, including Henan Province (Figure 1). More specifically, in Henan infections with the δ strain were first identified on 31 July and peaked on 12 August 2021. Thus, it is logical to speculate that there was an incubation period of the δ strain within Henan prior to being detected on 31 July 2021, which was most likely coincident with the flood period in Henan Province (17 July 2021).
Thus, the immediate challenge to the authorities is the dilemma: should people be moved or should the complete lockdown be maintained? Consideration needs to be carefully weighed between the most urgent needs of the people suffering from flooding in this situation, while necessary public health interventions must also be followed to prevent or minimise the possible transmission of COVID-19, with the associated morbidity, mortality and economic impacts that will result from large numbers of infections.
Global extreme weather events attributed to climate change have been observed in a number of regions around the world, e.g. flooding in Leipzig, Germany (Pietsch et al., 2020), and hurricanes in the US (Honoré, 2020). Henan Province is located in the centre of China with a relatively low rainfall each year (Peng et al., 2017). It should be emphasised that the banks of the Yellow River are elevated for much of its course across Henan province, and near the capital Zhengzhou are 5 m higher than the ground level, emphasising an obvious potential risk of catastrophic flooding if the riverbanks are breached. Despite upstream dam construction and other flood mitigation work during the 20th century, there remains a clear need for authorities to undertake extensive preparations for such a potential disaster, especially in the heavily populated Zhengzhou area.
However, this most devastating disaster, that has occurred in a compound manner with the COVID-19 pandemic, apparently was not anticipated by the authorities. These compound catastrophic events have provided the authorities with a salutary lesson in the need for substantially more robust planning and preparation in the future. These lessons need to be seriously taken into account during the necessary retrospective analysis of this compound disaster, for effective management of future natural disasters.
Data sharing is not applicable to this article as no new data were created or analyzed in this study.
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