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If you didn’t get the deals and discounts you were hoping for this Black Friday , fear not, for January is likely to be awash with bargains, analysts say. 
This is because the ongoing supply chain crisis, which is preventing products from getting to where they need to be in time for the holidays, is likely to lead to major discounts in the post-holiday season, a group of BMO analysts wrote in a note to clients this week. 
“We believe it critical to point out that unlike last year’s actual supply-chain shutdown (factories shut, vendors shut, stores shut), supply chains are not shut down this year, they are slowed down. Meaning, the issue is less one of creation and more one of transportation,” these analysts wrote.
They continued: “That means that product is slowly inching its way across the globe and country. Unfortunately, that will likely lead to mistimed floorsets as product misses its intended season, likely triggering promotions and clearance.”
In other words, when product finally makes its way to stores, it’s likely headed straight for the discount racks. 
Some retailers shed light on how grave the situation has become in recent earnings calls. Victoria’s Secret CEO Martin Waters said that 45% of the brand’s fall season inventory has been delayed. Though it has already canceled 10 million units that would arrive too late, it’s expected to head into next year with more product than usual. And these products, which may be seasonal, are likely to be more vulnerable to discounts. 
This is particularly concerning for retailers who, in the past year, had finally managed to break the 12 year cycle of discounting which has plagued the retail sector since the last recession .
The pandemic forced retailers to think lean, BMO analyst Simeon Siegel said. “They canceled their purchase orders, supply chains shut down, and there was no product coming out,” he told Insider on a recent call.
“For the first time in a very long time, retailers were protected from themselves,” he said. Now, retailers are more likely to fall back into the discounting trap again, which is hard to break, he added. 
Some might just choose to offload inventory rather than having it clogging up their stores next year, which should present lots of buying opportunities for off-price stores such as TJ Maxx and Ross, experts say. 
While discounts might be good news for shoppers who are already feeling the pinch from rising inflation rates and watered-down promotions this Black Friday, they nonetheless may not get the deals they’re hoping for, Siegel said. 
“Anything that is good will sell out. Anything that is bad and that misses a deadline? That is going to sit on the shelf and rack up promotions again,” he said. 
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